A space-time analysis of mortality in older people living with HIV/AIDS in the state of São Paulo, Brazil / Uma análise espaço temporal da mortalidade em pessoas idosas que vivem com HIV/AIDS no estado de São Paulo, Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality in older people living with the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological study with temporal and spatial approaches to analyze mortality from HIV/AIDS in the older adult population in the 2010-2020 period in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of temporal trends was performed using the joinpoint regression, and spatial analysis was carried out using the Moran's index and the local empirical Bayesian model. Results: We identified a total of 3,070 deaths from HIV/AIDS among older adults and a mortality rate of 51.71 per 100 thousand inhabitants during the study period. The joinpoint method showed a growing trend for the age groups from 70 to 79 years (annual percent change [APC]=3.45; p=0.01) and ≥80 years (APC=6.60; p=0.006) and stability for the general older adult population (APC=0.99; p=0.226). The spatial distribution of the crude mortality rate was diffuse throughout the state. After smoothing by the Bayesian estimator, we observed greater concentration in the eastern mesoregions. In Moran's analysis, we observed clusters of lower mortality rates in more central regions; and of higher rates in the southern and northern regions of the state. Conclusions: We found a major growing trend in mortality from HIV/AIDS in the age group of older adults over 69 years during the 2010-2020 period. Clusters of high mortality rates were located in regions further to the south and north of the state, where places of greater social inequalities are concentrated.

RESUMO Objetivo: O estudo tem como objetivo analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da mortalidade em idosos que vivem com HIV/AIDS no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com abordagens temporal e espacial para análise da mortalidade por HIV/AIDS em pessoas idosas no período de 2010-2020 no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. A análise das tendências temporais foi realizada por meio da regressão joinpoint e as análises espaciais foram realizadas usando o índice de Moran e o modelo bayesiano empírico local. Resultados: Foram identificados 3.070 óbitos por HIV/AIDS entre pessoas idosas e taxa de mortalidade de 51,71 por 100 mil habitantes no período de estudo. O método joinpoint revelou tendência crescente para as faixas etárias de 70 a 79 anos (variação percentual anual — APC=3,45 p=0,01) e 80 anos ou mais (APC=6,60, p=0,006) e de estabilidade para a população idosa geral (APC=0,99, p=0,226). A distribuição espacial da taxa bruta de mortalidade demonstrou-se difusa em todo o estado. Após suavização pelo estimador bayesiano, observou-se maior concentração nas mesorregiões ao leste. Na análise de Moran, foram observados aglomerados das menores taxas de mortalidade em regiões mais centrais e das altas taxas em regiões mais ao sul e norte do estado. Conclusão: O grupo etário em que ocorreu maior tendência de crescimento da mortalidade por HIV/AIDS durante o período de 2010-2020 foi o de pessoas idosas com mais de 69 anos. Os aglomerados das altas taxas de mortalidade foram localizados em regiões mais ao sul e norte do estado, onde se concentram locais de maiores desigualdades sociais.

Padrões espaciais e caracterização epidemiológica dos suicídios na microrregião de Chapecó, Santa Catarina: estudo ecológico, 1996-2018 / Patrones espaciales y caracterización epidemiológica de los suicidios en la micro-región de Chapecó, Santa Catarina, Brasil: estudio ecológico, 1996-2018 / Spatial patterns and epidemiological characterization of suicides in the Chapecó micro-region, Santa Catarina, Brazil: an ecological study, 1996-2018

Objective: to identify spatial clusters of suicide and its epidemiological characteristics in the Chapecó (SC) micro-region from 1996 to 2018. Methods: this was an exploratory ecological study, using data from the Mortality Information System; specific suicide rates and relative risks (RR) were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI); the scan statistic was used for spatial analysis. Results: there were 1,034 suicides (13.7/100,000 inhabitants), with a male/female ratio of 3.79; the ≥ 60 age group was at higher risk for both sexes; a high risk cluster was found in the southwest region (RR = 1.57) and a low risk cluster in the southeast region, including Chapecó itself (RR = 0.68); risk of suicide among widowed (RR = 3.05; 95%CI 1.99;4.67), separated (RR = 2.48; 95%CI 1.44;4.27), and married (RR = 1.97; 95%CI 1.54;2.51) people was higher than among single people. The main methods were hanging (81.2%) and firearms (9.7%). Conclusion: there was a higher risk of suicide in the elderly, male and widowed people. Hanging was the most frequent method and risk clustering was found in the southwest.

Objetivo: identificar agregados espaciales de suicidio y el perfil epidemiológico en la microrregión de Chapecó (SC), 1996-2018. Métodos: estudio ecológico exploratorio, con datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Fueron calculadas tasas específicas de suicidio y riesgos relativos (RR) con intervalo de confianza 95% (IC95%). Para el análisis espacial se utilizó la estadística scan. Resultados: hubo 1.034 suicidios (13,7/100.000 habitantes), razón sexo masculino/femenino de 3,79. El grupo de ≥ 60 años presentó mayor riesgo para ambos sexos. Se observó un agregado de alto riesgo en la región suroeste (RR = 1,57) y un agregado de menor riesgo en el sureste (RR = 0,68). El riesgo de suicidio entre viudos (RR = 3.05; IC95% 1,99;4,67), separados (RR = 2.48; IC95% 1,44;4,27) y casados (RR = 1.97; IC95% 1,54;2,51) fueron mayores que entre solteros. El principal medio fue el ahorcamiento (81,2%), seguido de las armas de fuego (9,7%). Conclusión: hubo mayor riesgo de suicidio en ancianos, sexo masculino y viudos. Ahorcamiento fue el método más frecuente y se observó agrupación de riesgos hacia el Suroeste.

Objetivo: identificar conglomerados espaciais do suicídio e características epidemiológicas na microrregião de Chapecó, SC, Brasil, 1996-2018. Métodos: estudo ecológico exploratório, com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade; foram calculadas taxas específicas de suicídio, e riscos relativos (RR) com intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%); na análise espacial, utilizou-se estatística scan. Resultados: 1.034 suicídios (13,7/100 mil habitantes), a razão sexo masculino/feminino de 3,79; a idade ≥ 60 anos apresentou maior risco para ambos os sexos; observou-se um conglomerado de alto risco na região sudoeste (RR = 1,57) e um de menor risco a sudeste, incluindo Chapecó (RR = 0,68); risco de suicídio entre viúvos (RR = 3,05; IC95% 1,99;4,67), separados (RR = 2,48; IC95% 1,44;4,27) e casados (RR = 1,97; IC95% 1,54;2,51) maior que entre solteiros; principal método, enforcamento (81,2%), seguido por uso de arma de fogo (9,7%). Conclusão: maior risco de suicídio para idosos, sexo masculino e viúvos; enforcamento foi mais frequente; conglomerado de risco a sudoeste.

Spatial temporal feature of tuberculosis among high school students in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022 / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To analyze the spatial temporal distribution characteristics of tuberculosis among high school students at county levels in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022,so as to provide a scientific basis for tuberculosis prevention and control in schools.@*Methods@#Tuberculosis data from high school students in counties (districts) reported in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022 was collected from the Tuberculosis Information Management System and Infectious Disease Information Reporting System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System. Demographic data of high school students in counties (districts) came from the General Management System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System, and the spatial clustering of the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students in Gansu Province in the past five years was analyzed using the methods of global spatial autocorrelation (Moran s I) and local indicators of spatial audocorrelation(LISA).@*Results@#A total of 41 885 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in various counties of Gansu Province From 2018 to 2022, with an average reported incidence rate of 32.81/100 000. During the same period, 1 170 high school students cases were reported, with an average reported incidence rate of 13.72/100 000. With the exception of 2020, the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students was non random distribution in other 4 years, showed a moderate intensity of spatial clustering. From 2018 to 2022, most counties in Gansu Province reported that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students was 10.00/100 000 or below, the counties with reported incidence rate >40.00/100 000 were mainly distributed in Luqu County, Maqu County, Diebu County, Hezuo City, Xiahe County of Gannan Prefecture, Gangu County and Wushan County of Tianshui Prefecture, Wenxian County and Kangxian County of Longnan Prefecture, Huachi County of Pingliang Prefecture, Huanxian County of Qingyang Prefecture. The number of counties where the reported incidence rate of tuberculosis among high school students more than 30.00/100 000 gradually decreased from 2018 to 2022. In the past five years, the reported incidence rate of tuberculosis among high school students in all counties of Gannan Prefecture remained above 40.00/ 100 000 . The LISA analysis results showed that the high incidence areas were mainly concentrated in Gannan Prefecture.@*Conclusions@#The epidemic situation of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students in Gansu province from 2018 to 2022 is still a serious condition, showing the characteristics of unbalanced regional distribution. The reported incidence rate shows a strong spatial clustering, and the hot spots are concentrated in the counties (districts) of Gannan prefecture in Gansu Province.

Utilizing prospective space-time scan statistics to discover the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 clusters in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

ABSTRACT Background: The number of deaths and people infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil has steadily increased in the first few months of the pandemic. Despite the underreporting of coronavirus cases by government agencies across the country, São Paulo has the highest rate among all Brazilian states. Methods: To identify the highest-risk municipalities during the initial outbreak, we utilized daily confirmed case data from official reports between February 25 and May 5, 2020, which were aggregated to the municipality level. A prospective space-time scan statistic was conducted to detect active clusters in three different time periods. Results: Our findings suggest that approximately 4.6 times more municipalities belong to a significant space-time cluster with a relative risk (RR) > 1 on May 5, 2020. Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the applicability of the space-time scan statistic for the detection of emerging clusters of COVID-19. In particular, we identified the clusters and RR of municipalities in the initial months of the pandemic, explaining the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 transmission in the state of São Paulo. These results can be used to improve disease monitoring and facilitate targeted interventions.

Análise espacial da leishmaniose tegumentar americana entre 2007 e 2017 / Spatial analysis of american cutaneous leishmaniasis between 2007 and 2017 / Análisis espacial de la leishmaniosis tegumentaria americana entre 2007 y 2017

Objetivo: analisar o perfil epidemiológico da leishmaniose tegumentar americana entre 2007 e 2017 na Paraíba, Nordeste Brasileiro. Método: Estudo ecológico dos casos de leishmaniose tegumentar americana registrados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Utilizou-se o Risco Relativo, Método Scan Espacial e Método Bayesiano Empírico Local para a análise dos conglomerados. Resultados: Foram registrados 671 casos de leishmaniose tegumentar americana na Paraíba entre 2007 e 2017 com maior ocorrência em 2009 e 2010, com 121 e 91 notificações, respectivamente e no sexo masculino (341). A maioria apresentou a forma clínica cutânea e residentes na zona rural. Identificaram-se conglomerados espaciais significativos da leishmaniose tegumentar americana na Paraíba, no Litoral Norte, microrregião do Agreste e no município de Poço Dantas no Alto Sertão. Conclusões: os conglomerados espaciais de risco para a infecção demonstram a importância de ações imediatas de educação em saúde para prevenção do agravo

Objective: to analyze the epidemiological profile of american cutaneous leishmaniasis between 2007 and 2017 in Paraíba, Northeast Brazil. Method: Ecological study of cases of american cutaneous leishmaniasis registered in the Notifiable Diseases Information System. Relative Risk, Spatial Scan Method and Local Empirical Bayesian Method were used for the analysis of conglomerates.Results: 671 cases of american cutaneous leishmaniasis were registered in Paraíba between 2007 and 2017, with the highest occurrence in 2009 and 2010, with 121 and 91 notifications, respectively and among males (341). Most presented the clinical cutaneous form and lived in the rural area. Significant spatial conglomerates of american cutaneous leishmaniasis were identified in Paraíba, on the North Coast, the Agreste micro-region and in the municipality of Poço Dantas in Alto Sertão. Conclusions: thespatial conglomerates at risk for infection demonstrate the importance of immediate health education actions to prevent the disease

Objetivo: analizar el perfil epidemiológico de la leishmniosis cutánea entre 2007 y 2017 en Paraíba, noreste de Brasil. Método: Estudio ecológico de casos de leishmniosis cutánea registrados en el Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación. El riesgo relativo, el método de exploración espacial y el método bayesiano empírico local se utilizaron para el análisis del conglomerados. Resultados: se registraron 671 casos de leishmaniasis cutánea en Paraíba entre 2007 y 2017, con la mayor incidencia en 2009 y 2010, con 121 y 91 notificaciones, respectivamente, y entre hombres (341). La mayoría presentaba la forma cutánea clínica y vivía en el área rural. Se identificaron importantes conglomerados espaciales de leishmaniasis cutánea en Paraíba, en la costa norte, en la microrregión de Agreste y en el municipio de Poço Dantas en Alto Sertão. Conclusiones: los conglomerados espaciales en riesgo de infección demuestran la importancia de las acciones inmediatas de educación sanitaria para prevenir la enfermedad

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snails in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, to provide insights into precision control of O. hupensis snails in Anhui Province.@*METHODS@#O. hupensis snail distribution data were collected in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 and descriptively analyzed, including actual area of snail habitats, area of emerging snail habitats and area of Schistosoma japonicum-infected snails. The actual area of snail habitats and area of emerging snail habitats were subjected to spatial autocorrelation analysis, hotspot analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and space-time scanning analysis, and the clusters of snail distribution and settings at high risk of snail spread were identified in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020.@*RESULTS@#The actual area of snail habitats gradually decreased in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020. The actual area of snail habitats were 26 238.85 hm2 in Anhui Province in 2020, which were mainly distributed in marshland and lake regions. There was a large fluctuation in the area of emerging snail habitats in Anhui Province during the period from 2011 to 2020, with the largest area seen in 2016 (1 287.65 hm2), and 1.96 hm2 emerging infected snail habitats were detected in Guichi District, Chizhou City in 2020. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analyses showed spatial clusters in the distribution of actual areas of snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 (Z = 3.00 to 3.43, all P values < 0.01), and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in the marshland and lake regions and distributed along the south side of the Yangtze River, while the cold spots were mainly concentrated in the mountainous regions of southern Anhui Province. There were no overall spatial clusters in the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats (Z = -2.20 to 1.71, all P values > 0.05), and a scattered distribution was found in local regions. Standard deviation ellipse analysis showed relatively stable distributions of the actual areas of snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, which was consistent with the flow direction of the Yangtze River, and the focus of the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats shifted from the lower reaches to upper reaches of Anhui section of the Yangtze River. Space-time scanning analysis identified two high-value clusters in the distribution of actual areas of snail habitats in lower and middle reaches of Anhui section of the Yangtze River from 2011 to 2020, and two high-value clusters in the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats were identified in mountainous and hilly regions.@*CONCLUSIONS@#There were spatial clusters in the distribution of O. hupensis snails in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, which appeared a tendency of aggregation towards the south side and upper reaches of the Yangtze River; however, the spread of O. hupensis snails could not be neglected in mountainous and hilly regions. Monitoring of emerging snail habitats should be reinforced in mountainous and hilly regions and along the Yangtze River basin.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Zhejiang province, 2016—2020 / 中华皮肤科杂志

Objective:To analyze spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, to explore cluster areas of syphilis cases, and to provide a theoretical basis for accurate prevention and control of syphilis.Methods:Data on reported syphilis cases in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020 were collected from the notifiable infectious disease surveillance system in China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The ArcGIS10.2 software was used as a data management and presentation platform to establish a database for spatial analysis of syphilis in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, and spatial autocorrelation analysis of reported syphilis incidence was conducted. The SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis.Results:A total of 158 420 cases of syphilis were reported in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, and the average annual reported incidence rate was 49.07 per 100 000 in all counties and districts (range: 20.52 per 100 000-124.29 per 100 000) . The overall spatial distribution pattern of syphilis cases in Zhejiang province was characterized by higher reported syphilis incidence in the West area and lower incidence in the middle area. Global autocorrelation analysis showed that all the global Moran′s I indices from 2016 to 2020 were over 0, Z values were over 1.96, and P values were below 0.001, suggesting the spatial clustering of reported syphilis cases. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 2 high-high clustering areas (Tonglu and Chun′an counties in Hangzhou city, Jingning county in Lishui city) , and 1 low-low clustering area (Jindong district, Dongyang and Yongkang county-level cities in Jinhua city) . Local hot-spot analysis with G statistic showed that there were 6 positive hot-spot areas and 8 negative hot-spot areas of syphilis cases in Zhejiang province. SaTScan spatiotemporal scanning analysis revealed 3 clustering areas, mainly distributed in Taizhou and Zhoushan cities along the eastern coast, and some counties and districts in the southwestern mountainous areas. Conclusions:The reported incidence rate of syphilis in Zhejiang province is characterized by spatial clustering. In the future, prevention and control of syphilis should be strengthened in southwestern mountainous areas, eastern islands, and other remote areas as well as areas with poor transportation.

COVID-19 y adultos mayores: comparación espaciotemporal entre mortalidad y vacunación en la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina / COVID-19 and older adults: spatiotemporal comparison between mortality and vaccination in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

RESUMEN El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar las variaciones espaciotemporales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en adultos mayores y de la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en esta población. Se utilizaron datos de defunciones por COVID-19 y de personas de 70 a más años inmunizadas con la primera dosis de vacunas contra esta enfermedad, en partidos de la provincia de Buenos Aires, desde el 29 de diciembre del 2020 al 30 de junio de 2021. Se emplearon técnicas de escaneo espaciotemporal para detectar conglomerados. Los partidos del Gran Buenos Aires que tuvieron mayor vacunación con la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en población de 70 a más años, entre mediados de marzo y principios de abril de 2021, coincidieron mayormente en registrar una disminución de la mortalidad en esta población, entre finales de abril y finales de junio de 2021. Este estudio mostró algunos indicios del impacto positivo de la aplicación de la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en el Gran Buenos Aires.

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 mortality and vaccination against COVID-19 in older adults. We used data from deaths due to COVID-19 and persons aged 70 years and older immunized with the first dose of vaccines against this disease, from districts of the province of Buenos Aires, between December 29, 2020, and June 30, 2021. Spatiotemporal scanning techniques were used to detect clusters. The parties of Greater Buenos Aires that had the highest vaccination rate with the first dose of the Sputnik V vaccine in population aged 70 years and older, between mid-March and early April 2021, also registered a decrease in mortality in this population, between the end of April and the end of June 2021. This study showed some signs of the positive impact associated with the application of the first dose of Sputnik V vaccine in Greater Buenos Aires.

Tendência da prevalência do sobrepeso e obesidade no Espírito Santo: estudo ecológico, 2009-2018 / Tendencia en la prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad en Espírito Santo, Brasil: un estudio ecológico, 2009-2018 / Overweight and obesity prevalence trend in Espírito Santo, Brazil: an ecological study, 2009-2018

Objetivo: Analisar tendências nas prevalências do sobrepeso e obesidade no estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil, entre 2009 e 2018. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, com dados do Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional. O sobrepeso e a obesidade foram classificados conforme preconiza a Organização Mundial da Saúde. Realizou-se regressão linear (Prais-Winsten) para estimar a tendência da prevalência. Resultados: Observou-se tendência crescente de sobrepeso (5,5 a 8,6%) e obesidade (4,4 a 8,3%), em ambos os sexos e nas diferentes regiões do estado. Na análise estratificada, houve aumento de sobrepeso e obesidade em crianças, adolescentes e adultos do sexo feminino (4,2 a 8,6%; p<0,05). No sexo masculino, nas regiões norte, central e sul do estado, a obesidade cresceu entre adolescentes, enquanto na região sul, em todas as faixas etárias (crescimento de 5,1%; p=0,01). Conclusão: Houve aumento do sobrepeso e da obesidade no Espírito Santo, de 2009 a 2018.

Objetivo: Analizar tendencias en la prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad en el estado de Espírito Santo, Brasil, de 2009-2018. Métodos: Estudio ecológico utilizando datos del Sistema de Vigilancia Alimentaria y Nutricional. El sobrepeso y la obesidad se clasificaron según recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Se realizó regresión lineal (Prais-Winsten) para estimar la tendencia de prevalencia. Resultados: Se observó una tendencia creciente al sobrepeso (5,5 a 8,6%) y a la obesidad (4,4 a 8,3%), en ambos sexos y regiones. En el análisis estratificado, hubo aumento de sobrepeso y obesidad en niños, adolescentes y mujeres adultas (4,2 a 8,6%; p<0,05). En los hombres, la obesidad aumentó entre los adolescentes de las regiones norte, centro y sur del estado y hubo un aumento de la obesidad (5,1%; p=0,01) en todas las edades en la región sur. Conclusión: Hubo un aumento del sobrepeso y la obesidad de 2009 a 2018 en Espírito Santo.

Objective To analyze trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2009 and 2018. Methods This was an ecological study, with data from the Food and Nutritional Surveillance System (SISVAN). Overweight and obesity were classified as recommended by the World Health Organization. Prais-Winsten regression was used to estimate the trend of the prevalence. Results There was an increasing trend of overweight (5.5 to 8.6%) and obesity (4.4 to 8.3%), in both sexes and in different regions of the state. In the stratified analysis, there was an increase in overweight and obesity in children, adolescents and adult women (4,2 a 8,6%; p<0,05). Obesity increased among male adolescents, in the south, central and north regions of the state, while in the south region, in all age groups (5.1% growth; p=0.01). Conclusion There was an increase in overweight and obesity in Espírito Santo, from 2009 to 2018.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá / Tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose e sua distribuição espacial em Macapá-AP

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

RESUMO OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência temporal da incidência da tuberculose após a implementação do teste rápido molecular, identificar se a tuberculose apresenta variação sazonal e classificar o território de acordo com a densidade de casos e as áreas de risco em Macapá-AP. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico composto por casos de tuberculose registrados no SINAN entre 2001 e 2017. Foi utilizado o teste Prais-Winsten para classificar a tendência temporal da incidência e a Série Temporal Interrompida para identificar mudanças na tendência temporal antes e depois da implementação do teste rápido molecular, além de verificar a sazonalidade no município. Utilizou-se o estimador de Kernel para classificar a densidade de casos e estatística de varredura para identificar áreas de risco da tuberculose. RESULTADOS: Foram identificados 1730 casos, observando-se que a tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose foi decrescente (-0,27% por mês, IC95% −0,13 a −0,41). Não houve mudança de nível na série temporal após a implantação do teste molecular GeneXpert® MTB/RIF, porém, o período pós teste foi classificado como crescente em termos da incidência (+2,09% por mês, IC95% 0,92 a 3,27). Quanto à variação sazonal, apresentou crescimento (+13,7%/mês, IC95% 4,71 a 23,87) nos meses de dezembro a junho, referente ao período de chuvas - chamado inverno amazônico - e decréscimo (-9,21% por mês, IC95% −1,37 a −16,63) nos demais períodos. Por meio de Kernel, foram classificadas áreas com alta densidade de casos nos distritos Central e Norte e, com a estatística de varredura, foram identificados três aglomerados de proteção, AE1 (RR = 0,07), AE2 (RR = 0,23) e AE3 (RR = 0,36), e um aglomerado de alto risco, AE4 (RR = 1,47). CONCLUSÃO: A tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose se revelou decrescente na série temporal, todavia, um crescimento na detecção foi observado após introdução do TRM-TB, e ainda se evidenciou que há comportamento sazonal da tuberculose. A distribuição dos casos foi heterogênea, com tendência de concentração em territórios vulneráveis e de risco, evidenciando um padrão de desigualdade da doença no território.

Difusión espacio-temporal de muertes por COVID-19 en Argentina / Space-time spread of COVID-19 deaths in Argentina / Distribuição espaço-temporal de mortes por COVID-19 na Argentina

Resumen Objetivos. Describir la difusión espacio-temporal de las muertes por COVID-19, y analizar sus desigualdades socio-espaciales en la Argentina. Métodos. Se analizaron las muertes por COVID-19 ocurridas en Argentina al 17 de octubre de 2020 utilizando datos referidos al día, mes y año, y el lugar de residencia. Se utilizó la técnica de escaneo espacio-temporal por permutaciones para detectar la presencia de conglomerados espacio-temporales. Se compararon el nivel de pobreza, densidad poblacional y porcentaje de población adulta mayor entre las áreas pertenecientes a conglomerados de mortalidad alta y las áreas pertenecientes a conglomerados de mortalidad baja. Resultados. Se detectaron cinco conglomerados de mortalidad alta entre el 21 de marzo y el 27 de agosto en el Aglomerado Gran Buenos Aires (AGBA) y noreste de la provincia de Buenos Aires. Los conglomerados de mortalidad baja se localizaron en la periferia del AGBA, desde mediados de septiembre a mediados de octubre, y en el centro y noroeste de la Argentina, entre fines de abril y fines de agosto. Los conglomerados de mortalidad alta se localizaron en áreas con mayor densidad poblacional y mayor porcentaje de población adulta mayor en comparación a los conglomerados de mortalidad baja. Conclusiones. No se detectaron conglomerados de mortalidad alta entre septiembre y mediados de octubre. Tampoco hemos detectado una difusión espacial de muertes hacia áreas de nivel socioeconómico bajo a nivel nacional. Nuestros resultados apoyan el modelo de difusión de la mortalidad en una primera fase, que afecta a la principal área urbana de la Argentina.

ABSTRACT Objectives. Describe the space-time spread of COVID-19 deaths and analyze its socio-spatial inequalities in Argentina. Methods. COVID-19 deaths in Argentina as of October 17, 2020 were analyzed using data onday, month, and year, and place of residence. The space-time permutation scan method was used to detect the presence of space-time clusters. Poverty levels, population densities, and percentage of older adults in the population were compared for areas in high-mortality clusters and low-mortality clusters. Results. Five high-mortality clusters were detected between March 21 and August 27 in the Greater Buenos Aires conurbation and the northeast of the province of Buenos Aires. Low-mortality clusters were located on the periphery of the urban area from mid-September to mid-October and in central and northwestern Argentina between late April and late August. High-mortality clusters were located in areas with higher population densities and higher percentages of older adults in population, comparedto low-mortality clusters. Conclusions. No high-mortality clusters were detected between September and mid-October. Norhave we detected a spatial spread of deaths to areas of low socioeconomic status at the national level. Our results support the first phase of the mortality spread model, affecting the largest urban area in Argentina.

Resumo Objetivo. Descrever a distribuição espaço-temporal de mortes por COVID-19 e analisar desigualdades socioespaciais na Argentina. Métodos. As mortes por COVID-19 ocorridas na Argentina até 17 de outubro de 2020 foram analisadas a partir de dados referentes ao dia, mês e ano e local de residência. A estatística scan utilizando modelo de permutação espaço-tempo foi aplicada para detectar conglomerados espaço-temporais. Realizou-se a comparação do nível de pobreza, densidade populacional e percentual de população idosa entre as áreas pertencentes aos conglomerados com alta mortalidade e as áreas pertencentes aos conglomerados com baixa mortalidade. Resultados. Cinco conglomerados com alta mortalidade foram detectados entre 21 de março e 27 de agosto na região da Grande Buenos Aires e no nordeste da província de Buenos Aires. Os conglomerados com baixa mortalidade estavam localizados na periferia da região da Grande Buenos Aires, de meados de setembro a meados de outubro, e nas regiões central e noroeste do país, entre o final de abril e final de agosto. Os conglomerados com alta mortalidade estavam localizados em áreas de maior densidade populacional e maior percentual de população idosa em comparação aos conglomerados com baixa mortalidade. Conclusões. Não foram detectados conglomerados com alta mortalidade entre setembro e meadosde outubro. Também não se observou a distribuição espacial de mortes em áreas com baixo nível socioeconômico em todo o país. Os resultados deste estudo respaldam omodelo de distribuição de mortes na primeira fase, atingindo a principal área urbana da Argentina.

Tendencias y análisis espacio-temporal de la mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en Ecuador, 2001-2016 / Trends and space-time analysis of mortality due to diabetes mellitus in Ecuador, 2001-2016

Introducción: La mortalidad por diabetes mellitus es un problema de salud pública en ascenso en el mundo. Objetivos: Analizar los patrones temporales y espaciales de mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en Ecuador durante el periodo 2001-2016. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio ecológico mixto. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad específica y ajustada por edad para el periodo 2001-2016 en el Ecuador. Se utilizó el análisis de regresión de punto de inflexión para el análisis de las tendencias, y la metodología desarrollada por Kulldorf para el análisis de conglomerados espacio-temporales. Resultados: Durante el periodo 2001-2016 se registraron 57 788 defunciones por diabetes mellitus en el Ecuador. En el análisis de punto de inflexión las tasas ajustadas por edad en hombres reportaron un ascenso significativo del porcentaje de cambio anual de 2,4 por ciento (2001-2016; p < 0,001) y en las mujeres ascendió al 1,50 por ciento (2001-2016; p < 0,001). En el análisis espacio-temporal se detectaron dos conglomerados de alta mortalidad estadísticamente significativos, el conglomerado primario conformado por las provincias: Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí y Los Ríos (p < 0,001) y el conglomerado secundario formado por la provincia de Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas (p < 0,001). Conclusiones: La mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en el Ecuador se incrementó significativamente en la mayor parte de los grupos etarios y provincias durante el periodo 2001-2016. Las provincias de Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí, Los Ríos y Santo Domingo, acumularon la mayor cantidad de muertes por esta causa. Esto obliga a quienes tienen que tomar las decisiones a direccionar el diseño e implementación de políticas en salud que permitan mejorar los sistemas de registro para una adecuada vigilancia epidemiológica de la incidencia y carga de esta enfermedad(AU)

Introduction: Diabetes mellitus mortality is a growing public health problem in the world. Objectives: To analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of mortality by diabetes mellitus in Ecuador during the period 2001-2016. Methods: A mixed ecological study was performed. There were calculated the specific mortality rates and they were adjusted by age for the period 2001-2016 in Ecuador. It was used a joinpoint´s regression analysis for the assessment of trends and it was used the methodology developed by Kulldorf for the analysis of time-space clusters. Results: During the period 2001-2016 there were 57 788 deaths from diabetes mellitus in Ecuador. In the joinpoint analysis, age-adjusted rates in men reported a significant increase in the percentage of annual change of 2.4 percent (2001-2016; p<0.001) and in women increased to 1.50 percent (2001-2016; p<0.001). In the time-space analysis identified, there were identified two clusters of statistically significant high mortality: the first conglomerate formed by the provinces Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí and Los Ríos (p< 0.001); and the second conglomerate formed by the province of Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas (p< 0.001). Conclusions: Mortality by diabetes mellitus in Ecuador was significantly increased in most age groups and provinces during the period 2001-2016. The provinces of Santa Elena, Guayas, Manabí, Los Ríos and Santo Domingo accumulated the biggest number of deaths due to this cause. This forces decision makers to address the design and implementation of health policies that allow improving the registration systems for an adequate epidemiological surveillance(AU)

El riesgo de acelerar con la conducta individual, el envejecimiento, las enfermedades y la muerte / Risk of accelerating the processes of aging, diseases and death with individual behavior

RESUMEN Introducción: Sobre el fundamento de los conceptos que permiten la interpretación de los atributos materiales espacio y tiempo , se hace un análisis de los procesos que determinan el progresivo deterioro del organismo humano y sus expresiones características: "el envejecimiento, las enfermedades y la muerte". Objetivo: Estimular la adopción de estilos saludables de vida para garantizar la prolongación con calidad de la vida humana. Material y Métodos: Se realizó, a partir de la utilización del método lógico-deductivo, una revisión bibliográfica, de la literatura clásica sobre el tema, que aportó información sobre orígenes y desarrollo interpretativo del tiempo como atributo material, lo cual condujo a una síntesis sobre su conceptualización, válida para explicar interrogantes del proceso salud-enfermedad. También fueron consultados textos contemporáneos que proceden de documentos de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud/Organización Mundial de la salud o localizados en bases de datos como CUMED, LILACS, PUBMED, EBSCO y buscadores como Google académico, que permitieron la confirmación de la conceptualización. Desarrollo: La constante transformación espacio-temporal de la estructura material, debido al movimiento, determina el estado de la adaptabilidad celular, tisular y orgánica al medio interno y externo, favorable a la conservación de la salud y la vida, o a su deterioro, evidenciado, por sus expresiones características: envejecimiento, enfermedades y muerte, de ahí la responsabilidad individual en el ritmo de deterioro orgánico durante el curso de la vida, por lo que la adopción de estilos saludables de vida constituye una garantía para la prolongación de la vida humana con calidad. Conclusión: El riesgo de acelerar, el envejecimiento, las enfermedades y la muerte, está determinado por el curso temporal a que, con la conducta individual, se someta al organismo durante la existencia humana, por lo que la adopción de estilos saludables de vida, constituye una garantía para su prolongación con calidad.

ABSTRACT Introduction: An analysis of the processes that determine the progressive deterioration of the human body and its characteristic expressions: aging, diseases and death is made on the basis of the philosophical concepts that allow the interpretation of the material attributes space and time. Objective: To encourage the adoption of healthy lifestyles to guarantee the extension of human quality of life. Material and methods: A bibliographic review about the topic was carried out using the logical-deductive method. The data obtained provided information about the origins and interpretative development of time as material attribute, which yielded a synthesis on its conceptualization, valid to answer questions about the health-disease process. Contemporary texts taken from documents of the Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization or articles which are available in electronic databases such as CUMED, LILACS, PUBMED, EBSCO and search engines such as Google Scholar were also consulted to confirm this scientific conceptualization. Development: The constant space-time transformation of the material structure determines the state of cellular, tissue and organic adaptability to internal and external environment, which is favorable in the conservation or deterioration of health and life, evidenced by their characteristic expressions: aging, diseases and death. Consequently, the individual responsibility for the rhythm of organic deterioration during the course of life is considered; therefore, the decision to carry out healthy lifestyles constitutes a guarantee in the extension of human lifespan. Conclusions: The risk of accelerating aging, disease and death is determined by the temporary course to which the human body is submitted with our individual behavior during our existence; so the adoption of healthy lifestyles constitutes the guarantee for the prolongation of a healthy quality of life.

Tendência e distribuição da taxa de mortalidade por homicídios segundo porte populacional dos municípios do Brasil, 2000 e 2015 / Trend and distribution of the homicide mortality rate in accordance with the size of the population of Brazilian municipalities - 2000 and 2015

Resumo O estudo tem como objetivo analisar tendências e distribuição das taxas de mortalidade por homicídios (TMH) segundo porte populacional dos municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2015. Trata-se de estudo ecológico dos óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, com TMH padronizada pelo método direto e intervalo de 95% de confiança. A TMH no Brasil cresceu 6% (para 29,1/100 mil) no período, com aumento em municípios de pequeno (83%; 12,7 para 23,2/100 mil) e médio porte (52%; 19,7 para 30,1/100 mil); o que se verifica para ambos os sexos, diferentes idades, regiões e em eventos por arma de fogo. A TMH decresceu em municípios de grande porte metropolitanos (19%; 40,6 para 32,9/100 mil) e da região Sudeste (55%; 45,6 para 20,6/100 mil). O risco relativo-RR de cidades pequenas e médias em relação a grandes já é maior ou próximo de 1 em mulheres (RR 0,99; 1,03), pessoas com 60 ou mais anos (RR 1,43; 1,36) e homicídios por outros meios (RR 1,16; 1,18). As cidades de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro foram as que mais contribuíram para a redução das TMH, em especial nas cidades grandes (-37,6 e -22,3 homicídios/100 mil hab.). Municípios de porte pequeno e médio apresentam tendências consistentes de incremento de TMH mesmo considerando subgrupos populacionais.

Abstract The scope of this study is to analyze the trends and distribution of homicide mortality rates (HMR) according to the population size of Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study of deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System, with HMR standardized by the direct method and 95% confidence interval. HMR in Brazil grew 6% (to 29.1/100,000) in the period, with an increase in small municipalities (83%; 12.7 to 23.2/100,000) and mediumsized cities (52%; 19.7% to 30.1/100,000); which is true for both sexes, different ages, regions and firearm-related events. HMR decreased in major cities (19%; 40.6% to 32.9/100,000) and the Southeast region (55%; 45.6% to 20.6/100,000). The relative risk (RR) of small and medium-sized cities in relation to large cities is already greater than or close to 1 among women (RR 0.99; 1.03), people aged 60 years or older (RR 1.43; 1.36) and homicides by other means (RR 1.16; 1.18). The cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro contributed the most to the reduction of HMR, especially in large cities (-37.6 and -22.3 homicides/100,000 inhabitants). Small and medium-sized municipalities have consistent trends of an increase in HMR even considering population subgroups.

Análise dos padrões espaciais e caracterização dos suicídios no Brasil entre 1990 e 2015 / Analysis of spatial patterns and characterization of suicides in Brazil from 1990 to 2015 / Análisis de los patrones espaciales y caracterización de los suicidios en Brasil entre 1990 y 2015

Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o padrão espacial das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil entre 1990 e 2015. Realizou-se análise espacial das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio dos municípios, em triênios, por meio de inferência bayesiana e análise de clusters, segundo risco de óbito ajustado por sexo e faixa etária. A taxa de mortalidade por suicídio aumentou de 3,5 óbitos em 1990 para 5,3 óbitos/100 mil habitantes em 2015 quando, a cada 64 minutos, uma morte foi registrada. Houve predominância de óbitos masculinos em todos os períodos, e as variáveis idade e raça/cor apresentaram alterações. Alta taxa de mortalidade entre jovens e indígenas foi observada no último triênio. Observamos perda de áreas sem notificação, bem como redução de áreas com taxas baixas de mortalidade em oposição ao aumento de áreas com taxas médias em todas as regiões. As taxas altas, que se concentravam no Sul, se dispersaram para outras regiões. Taxas muito altas surgiram no sul de Mato Grosso do Sul. Clusters de maior verossimilhança em todos os períodos são observados no Sul. As taxas de mortalidade por suicídio aumentaram, com alteração no padrão espacial no período estudado. Apesar da concentração inicial das altas taxas de mortalidade no Sul, houve dispersão dos óbitos para as demais regiões com diferentes magnitudes. Por um lado, houve redução dos óbitos entre idosos no Sul; por outro lado, houve aumento de óbitos no Nordeste, de adultos e pessoas negras no Centro-oeste e entre jovens e indígenas no noroeste do Amazonas.

Abstract: This study aimed to analyze the spatial pattern in mortality rates from suicide in Brazil from 1990 to 2015. A spatial analysis was performed for the mortality rates from suicide in municipalities (counties) in three-year periods using Bayesian inference and clusters according to risk of death adjusted by sex and age bracket. The mortality rate from suicide increased from 3.5 deaths in 1990 to 5.3 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 2015, when there was one death from suicide every 64 minutes. There was a predominance of suicide deaths in males in all the periods, while the variables age and race/color showed some changes. High suicide mortality rates among youth and indigenous people were seen in the most recent three-year period. We observed a loss of areas without suicide reporting, a reduction in areas with low suicide mortality rates, as opposed to an increase in areas with medium rates in all the regions of Brazil. The high rates, previously concentrated in the South of Brazil, had expanded to other regions of the country. Very high rates emerged in southern Mato Grosso do Sul state. Clusters with higher likelihood in all the periods were observed in the South. Suicide mortality rates increased, with changes in the spatial during the 25-year period. Despite the initial concentration of high suicide mortality rates in the South, the deaths spread to other regions of the country with different magnitudes. There was a reduction in suicide deaths among the elderly in the South and an increase in the Northeast, and an increase in deaths in adults and black Brazilians in the Central and among youth and indigenous persons in northwestern Amazonas state.

Resumen: El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar el patrón espacial de la tasa de mortalidad por suicidio en Brasil entre 1990 y 2015. Se realizó un análisis espacial de las tasas de mortalidad por suicidio en municipios durante trienios, mediante inferencia bayesiana y análisis de clústeres, según el riesgo de fallecimiento, ajustado por sexo y franja de edad. La tasa de mortalidad por suicidio aumentó de 3,5 óbitos en 1990 a 5,3 óbitos/100 mil habitantes en 2015, cuando cada 64 minutos se registró una muerte. Hubo predominancia de fallecimientos masculinos en todos los períodos, mientras que las variables edad y raza/color presentaron alteraciones. Una alta tasa de mortalidad entre jóvenes e indígenas se observó en el último trienio. Observamos pérdida de áreas sin notificación, reducción de áreas con tasas bajas de mortalidad, frente al aumento de áreas con tasas medias en todas las regiones. Las tasas altas, que se concentraban en el Sur, se dispersaron hacia otras regiones. Aparecieron tasas muy altas en el sur de Mato Grosso do Sul. Los clústeres con mayor verosimilitud durante todos los períodos se observan en el Sur. Las tasas de mortalidad por suicidio aumentaron, con alteración en el patrón espacial durante el período estudiado. A pesar de la concentración inicial de las altas tasas de mortalidad en el Sur, hubo una dispersión de los fallecimientos hacia las demás regiones con diferentes magnitudes. Hubo una reducción de los óbitos entre ancianos en el Sur y un aumento en el Nordeste, así como un aumento de óbitos de adultos y personas negras en el Centro-oeste, y entre jóvenes e indígenas en el noroeste del Amazonas.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities along the Taihu Lake region / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To investigate the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in three cities of Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou along the Taihu Lake region, so as to provide technical supports for establishing a sensitive and highly effective surveillance and forecast system for schistosomiasis. Methods Snail distribution data were collected from Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities from 1950 to 2018, and the changing trend for snail habitats were described over years. In addition, the clusters of snail habitats were detected using Kernel density analysis and SaTScan space-time scan analysis. Results The number of snail habitats appeared a single-peak distribution in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities from 1950 to 2018, which peaked in 1970 and then declined rapidly. There were 62.68% of snail habitats eliminated within 10 years after identification, of which 38.24% were eliminated at the year of identification. Kernel density analysis and SaTScan space-time scan analysis revealed that high-density clusters of snail habitats were mainly distributed in Kunshan City, Wuzhong District and Xiangcheng District from 1970 to 1980, and in Yixing City in 1990; since then, the clusters gradually shrank, and overall appeared a move from northeast to west of Taihu Lake. A total of 4 new clusters were detected after 1970, as revealed by space-time scanning of snail habitats. In current snail habitats, emerging snail habitats are mainly identified in Huqiu District (Dongzhu Town), Wuzhong District (Guangfu Town), Taicang City (Shaxi Town) and Jintan District, and re-emerging snail habitats are scattered in 7 districts. Conclusions The distribution of snail habitats are spatio-temporal aggregation in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities. The monitoring and prediction of emerging and re-emerging snail habitats are the key points in the future.

Space Time Clusters Of Dengue Fever In Medan Municipality, North Sumatera, Indonesia

@#Dengue fever (DF) infection continues to present as a serious public health problem in Medan municipality, North Sumatera, Indonesia. The number of DF cases continuously increasing recently. However, space time clusters of DF have not been investigated yet. A study was undertaken to detect clusters of DF incidence during 2015-2018 in Medan. Spatial geo-reference was conducted to 151 village coordinates by geocoding each village’s offices. A retrospective space-time scan statistic analysis based on population data and monthly DF incidence was performed using SaTScan TM v9.4.4. Data of DF during 1 January 2015-31 December 2018 were analyzed using Poisson model to identify the villages at high risk of DF. The test of significance of the identified clusters of DF was based on comparing the likelihood ratio (LLR) against the null distribution obtained from Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. Total number of permutation was set to 999 and the significance level was set as 0.05. The highest LLR number was determined as the most likely cluster, while the rests were as the secondary clusters. This analysis identified 13 significant clusters. These DF clusters were initially spatially concentrated in the southwest and center of Medan and the last two years of study moved towards the northern part and identified in the last four months (September-December) of each year, which were the rainy seasons in the area. Most likely clusters were most frequently detected in the last three-year period of study in Anggrung village. Thirteen statistically significant DF clusters were identified in the 2015-2018 period. This may assist health authorities to improve the DF preventive strategies and develop public health interventions especially in the cluster’s area.

Aids in men in the city of São Paulo, 1980-2012: spatial and space-time analysis / Aids em homens no município de São Paulo, 1980-2012: análise espacial e espaço-temporal

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVES: To identify spatial and space-time clusters with high incidence rates of AIDS in men living in the city of São Paulo since the first case of the disease in 1980. METHODS: HIV/AIDS notifications were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (57,440 men) between January 1980 and June 2012. The cases were geocoded by residence address; then analyses of purely spatial, space-time and spatial variation in temporal trends were performed for three sets of data: total cases of AIDS in men aged 13 years or older, men aged 50 years or older, and deaths from AIDS. RESULTS: It was possible to geocode a significant proportion of AIDS cases (93.7%). In the purely spatial scanning analysis, considering the entire period evaluated, the AIDS epidemic in men presented an important spatial concentration in the Center and in contiguous areas of the North, Southeast and West regions of the municipality, regardless of age group and evolution to death (relative risks between 1.22 and 5.90). Considering space and time simultaneously, several clusters were found, spread throughout all regions of the municipality (relative risks between 1.44 and 8.61). In the analysis of spatial variation in temporal trends, the clusters in the most peripheral regions presented a higher annual percentage increase in disease rates (up to 7.58%), denoting the tendency of "peripherization" of the epidemic in men in the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: This study allowed the detection of geographic clusters of high risk for AIDS in men, pointing to priority areas in the municipality, both for programmatic actions and to guide other studies.

RESUMO OBJETIVOS: Identificar aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais de altas taxas de incidência de aids em homens residentes no município de São Paulo desde o primeiro caso da doença em 1980. MÉTODOS: As notificações de HIV/aids foram obtidas do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (57.440 homens) entre janeiro de 1980 e junho de 2012. Os casos foram geocodificados por endereço de residência; em seguida, análises de varredura puramente espacial, espaço-temporal e de variação espacial nas tendências temporais foram realizadas para três conjuntos de dados: total de casos de aids em homens com 13 anos de idade ou mais, homens com 50 anos ou mais e óbitos por aids. RESULTADOS: Foi possível geocodificar uma expressiva proporção de casos de aids (93,7%). Na análise de varredura puramente espacial, considerando-se todo o período avaliado, a epidemia de aids nos homens apresentou importante concentração espacial no Centro e em áreas contíguas das regiões Norte, Sudeste e Oeste do município, independentemente da faixa etária e da evolução para o óbito (riscos relativos entre 1,22 e 5,90). Levando-se em conta simultaneamente o espaço e o tempo, diversos aglomerados foram encontrados, espalhados por todas as regiões do município (riscos relativos entre 1,44 e 8,61). Na análise da variação espacial nas tendências temporais, os aglomerados nas regiões mais periféricas apresentaram maior incremento percentual anual das taxas da doença (de até 7,58%), denotando a tendência de "periferização" da epidemia nos homens na cidade de São Paulo. CONCLUSÕES: Este estudo permitiu a detecção de aglomerados geográficos de alto risco para a aids nos homens, apontando para áreas prioritárias no município, tanto para ações programáticas como para nortear outros estudos.

Surveillance of the first cases of COVID-19 in Sergipe using a prospective spatiotemporal analysis: the spatial dispersion and its public health implications

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health emergency with lethality ranging from 1% to 5%. This study aimed to identify active high-risk transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Sergipe. METHODS: We performed a prospective space-time analysis using confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the first 7 weeks of the outbreak in Sergipe. RESULTS: The prospective space-time statistic detected "active" and emerging spatio-temporal clusters comprising six municipalities in the south-central region of the state. CONCLUSIONS: The Geographic Information System (GIS) associated with spatio-temporal scan statistics can provide timely support for surveillance and assist in decision-making.

Syphilis in pregnant women and congenital syphilis: spatial pattern and relationship with social determinants of health in Mato Grosso

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The increasing incidence of syphilis among pregnant women (PS) and congenital syphilis (CS) has negatively affected maternal-child health in Brazil. The spatial approach to diseases with social indicators improves knowledge of health situations. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of incidences, identify the priority areas for infection control actions, and analyze the relationship of PS and CS clusters with social determinants of health in Mato Grosso. METHODS: This is an ecological study with data from different health information systems. After data procedure linkage, we analyzed the Bayesian incidences of triennial infections during specific periods. We performed SATSCAN screenings to identify spatiotemporal clusters. Further, we verified the differences between the clusters and indicators using Pearson's chi-square test. RESULTS: The variations in PS incidence were 0.9-20.5/1,000 live births (LB), 0.6-46.3/1,000 LB, and 2.1-23.2/1,000 LB in the first, second, and last triennium, respectively; for CS, the variations were 0-7.1/1,000 LB, 0-7.5/1,000 LB, and 0.3-10.8/1,000 LB in the first, second, and last triennium, respectively. Three clusters each were identified for PS (RR=2.02; RR=0.30; RR=21.45, p<0.0001) and CS (RR=3.55; RR=0.10; RR=0.26, p<0.0001). The high-risk clusters overlapped in time-space; CS incidence was associated with municipalities with a higher proportion of LB mothers of race/non-white color and with poor sanitary conditions, lower proportion of pregnant teenagers, and under 8 years of schooling. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the spatiotemporal evolution of PS and CS incidences and the extension of areas with persistent infections indicate the need for monitoring, especially of priority areas in the state.